Android has the traditional carriers unnerved at the prospect of a rapidly evolving business model - unnerved enough for historically closed Verizon Wireless to let down the CDMA drawbridge, even - with open-source software promising to flood the market with low-cost, highly adapted cellular devices and advertising revenue supplanting monthly contracts and expensive add-ons.  Yet some believe this upheaval is merely the beginning; Linux software provider Wind River Systems dispatched their chief marketing officer, John Bruggeman, to talk to ZDNet’s Dana Gardner about not only the advancing role of geo-specific search and advertising, but the future of Android as a platform for mobile devices and the successful software that’s to run on it.

“You’ve got your phone. And, I know physically where that [phone’s] IP address is. You are around the corner from Starbucks. Now, is Starbucks going to be willing to pay a premium to get you to drive or walk around the corner? Or, I know you’re sitting in the airport terminal. All the possibilities become very powerful concepts” John Bruggerman, Wind River Systems

With Google already experimenting with mobile adverts, and Microsoft this week launching both banner and text adverts on their MSN Mobile portal, it seems a safe bet that the business model is set to evolve.  Yet as eWeek’s Clint Boulton points out, consumers already consider banners passé and are fearful that the adverts will “clutter the tiny screens” of their devices.  The key difference will be targeting promotional content so that it is both personally and situationally specific enough to be of interest (rather than frustration) to the user, and cost effective to the company funding the advert who is, in effect, subsidising the user’s connection.

“There might be revenue that’s derived through connectivity, but increasingly we’re seeing the big money around the monetization of advertising attached to search, advertising attached to specific content, and advertising attached increasingly to mobile location and presence” Dana Gardner, ZDNet

Many have speculated on Google’s long-term plans with Android, but Bruggerman believes that to some extent it’s out of their hands; that their vision for a low-development-cost platform could in fact kick-start a sub-UMPC segment with the integral connectivity of a smartphone but the form factor - and breadth of application - of a small Tablet PC.

“Maybe the most important technology market to observe right now is the mobile Internet device (MID). Many analysts are starting to pick up on it, and it could be viewed as the next generation of the mobile phone. But I think that’s underselling the real opportunity. If you look on the dashboard of your automobile, the back of your airplane seat, everywhere you go and everything you touch, it is a potential resting place for a MID with a 4×6 screen or a 3×5 screen, or all different kinds of form factors. That kind of use gives you the experience that is the eventual promise of the Android platform” John Bruggerman, Wind River Systems

Of course, the current pressing issue is the apparent dearth of (publicised) applications to run on Android, with many believing that Google’s $10m prize-fund for successful software is in fact driving developers underground in order to protect their ideas.  As one of the most successful companies in mobile Linux, Wind River believes their strength comes from a blend of open-source and commercial ethos:

“Any time you have lower BOM [bill-of-material] cost, you’ve got to give somewhere, and that give is in the form of time, quality, etc. Those two promises are competing, and the people who prosper and thrive on the Android platform are going to be those companies that can squarely plant one foot in the open-source promise and the other foot firmly in the commercial side of the equation” John Bruggerman, Wind River Systems

In short, providing quality, unique software that still has the backing of aftercare support, clear documentation, training and regular upgrades, as has been successful for Linux providers in the desktop and enterprise worlds such as SUSE and Red Hat.  It’s the difference between homebrew software and a professional release, but the expected broad installation base and structured platform background could make it far more cost-effective for small development teams to grab large market shares.  In the past, the lack of a “write once, run many” commonality between devices has meant coding and porting takes up the vast majority of programming hours, whereas the OHA’s specifications should ensure that a single version should work on multiple devices despite changes in form factor, screen size and controls.