It might just be Seasonal Affective Disorder, but paranoia and dark soothsaying seem to be the moods of the moment with analysts and industry professionals muttering worried concerns about Google’s long-term plans and the state of the open-source market.  While the original Android announcement - of a mobile platform built on open-source foundations that would promote flexibility and perhaps even make good on the “write once, run anywhere” mantra developers have long been promised - prompted excitement, the recent release of LiPS’ open-specifications has reminded everyone of the flipside of flexibility.  Namely, that everybody involved needs to sign up to the same standards and cooperate. 

“It’s unlikely that Android would happen to comply with LiPS 1.0 … At the end of the day, confused customers don’t buy — and confused developers don’t write apps. Then you have a fragmented ecosystem” Bill Hughes, analyst, In-Stat

LiPS, of course, were careful not to cite Google as a rival, but their press release has been interpreted by some as including a sly critique of the Open Handset Alliance’s strategy.  It’s that critique which has analysts concerned, together with the absence of overlap between existing LiPS membership and those who have signed up to the Google project.

“In contrast to recent announcements from other bodies promoting Linux-based mobile software, LiPS output targets interoperability through real open standards and specifications, not de facto acceptance of a single platform implementation” LiPS Release 1.0 Announcement

Meanwhile, others are predicting the next, ominous monopoly in the tech world: Google and their monetisation of cellphones:

“The Google toolbar watches everything users do online in real time.  Look at what Google can do with mobile phones: see every contact people dial, track and serve what ads they see. It’s clear their intent is to have all search and advertising run through their toolset — from Google AdWords and customer acquisition through the final Google Checkout transaction” Adam Soroca, GM, Jumptap

Is Android one great Trojan Horse, laid out with the guise of cheap development in order to lull the carriers into adopting a model other than their own and that, despite its open-source aspirations, will nonetheless promote the virtues of a highly specific platform?  Time will tell, but given the company’s current ramped-up experimentation with mobile-friendly sites and portals - a Google homepage for the iPhone last week, with mobile Picasa getting the treatment yesterday - it’s increasingly obvious that whether Android, OS X or anything else, the search giant has definitely set their sights on the cellphone market.